Eddie Jordan has tipped Red Bull to pick Daniel Ricciardo as Sebastian Vettel's new teammate for 2014.
Lotus team boss Eric Boullier said as recently as last Friday that he is doing "everything we can" to convince Kimi Raikkonen to stay next season.
Jordan, a former F1 team owner turned broadcaster for British television, thinks the Finn will ultimately decide to turn down Red Bull's admitted strong interest.
"At first I was pretty sure that Raikkonen will replace Mark Webber," Jordan told Russia's f1news.ru.
"But now I'm ready to change my mind," he admitted. "Sebastian Vettel is staying until 2015 and so it's probably not the best time to become his teammate.
"I think Red Bull will opt for Daniel Ricciardo.
"I don't think Raikkonen wants to get into an extensive programme at Red Bull, with all the marketing, the work with the sponsors, the photo shoots and so on.
"That's the sort of work that every driver for that team has to do.
"Red Bull has a marketing programme, but Kimi Raikkonen just wants to race. I doubt they will find common ground," added Jordan.
Former F1 driver Ralf Schumacher, however, thinks Raikkonen should snap up Red Bull's offer.
"In his situation," the former Williams and Toyota driver said, "I would go to Red Bull without hesitation -- not for a second.
"It's true that we don't know every detail, like what kind of agreement Sebastian Vettel has," the German is quoted by Finland MTV3 broadcaster.
"But if the team gives both drivers the same equipment, it would be a great opportunity for Kimi, because he's a great driver."