2009 Season Preview by phil1993

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2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by phil1993 » 22 Feb 2009, 18:45

BY ME!!!!!

PHIL1993'S 2009 SEASON PREVIEW

So 2009, a make or break year for Formula One. The signs are that it will be more competitive than ever. We have so many top drivers: Hamilton, Raikkonen, Alonso, Kubica, Massa, Heidfeld, Kovalainen, and Vettel: well, one of them has to finish 8th by the time we complete the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. It has been one of the quietest off seasons in F1’s history in terms of the driver market since Brazil as teams aim for stability over a winter of uncertainty with the biggest regulation changes since 1997-8. Only Buemi has joined at the time of writing and all eyes have been focused on Honda and whether they (if they make it at all) will sign Senna in favour of Barrichello. After the F1.08B was tested by BMW in November and even test driver Christian Klien himself declaring that the car was ‘ugly’ the new cars have started to look alright, with both the McLaren and Williams looking amazing, although the livery of the R29 could do with some reworking. In terms of the tracks, well, the Chinese Grand Prix, which is about as interesting as watching paint dry, has been moved to being the third grand prix of the season and the French Grand Prix has been dropped due to financial problems and Montreal has been replaced with Abu Dhabi. At least in that sense we get the races which usually provide little action (Malaysia, Bahrain, China, Spain), over quickly so we can enjoy the European races later in the season. There is a four week gap between Hungary and Valencia that will probably feel like an eternity but I think that 2009 Valencia will be more entertaining than the race last year. Singapore will undergo changes to the layout before the race in September and Suzuka is back for the first time since 2006, which saw Fernando Alonso win. Brazil is now not the season finale in favour of a race on the Yas Marina in the Middle East. The track looks good, although what is concerning is the number of pathetic mickey mouse corners which look like small left, right, lefts, although overtaking looks promising on that track. An underground pit exit could catch some out (Lewis...) and the hotel above the track could provide a great view, as well as the grandstand on the exit of Turn 9 overhanging onto the run-off. It will be an entertaining race as the season finales always are as everyone is scrapping for position. The problem is that one new track has replaced two classics and although it is promising, what will it be like in 5 years time when the initial ‘wow factor’ regarding the hotel and underground pits etc has gone and we are faced with another bland track like Bahrain.
But if F1 2009 can be anything like 2008 then we are in for a classic season.

McLaren: #1 Hamilton; #2 Kovalainen

After the joy of the championship, McLaren set about celebrating... a lot. But after that, they announced that work on the MP4/24 had begun in September 2007 and at the unveiling, Ron announced his retirement, handing the reigns of McLaren to Martin Whitmarsh. This should be a smooth change with MW having been at the team for the best part of 20 years. When launched, the Merc looked a country mile ahead of Ferrari, the car looking sleek compared to the scrappy Ferrari whom were struggling with KERS and other things... but that seems to have changed. McLaren seem to be struggling as they are still using the 2008 spec wing; Hamilton was only 0.001s faster than Vettel, who had a 2009 spec wing. They were also snapped testing with a strange scaffolding type feature at a test track somewhere, probably Woking, which can only be a desperate measure. I expect the team to struggle until the European races but with their strength in depth, McLaren and Hamilton will still be strong. Although they can take promise from being faster than Williams as well as being the only team to successfully charge and use KERS over the course of one lap.
Lewis is still riding high after his emotional 5th place in Brazil that sealed the title. He has said that he will not believe he is No.1 until he sees it on his car when he arrives in Melbourne. Lewis can dominate at some tracks and many believe that once he gets one championship he may be so confident that he is unstoppable. But he also won last year through Ferrari mistakes, but he himself also made many mistakes: Canada, which screwed up France, inexperience in qualifying in Monza as well as misfortune in Hungary and penalties in Spa and Fuji, which also heaped unneeded pressure on his shoulders. Lewis’ main problem is not playing the long game. He cannot settle for 3rd place and take valuable points, like he did in Singapore, which he said hurt as he wanted to push faster but the team advised him against it. He also struggles in the midfield and is prone to mishaps. We have yet to see him in an uncompetitive car, but I think he is strong and the main battle may come from Heikki, but I think he can beat him but maybe not the other Finn. We may also see him retire on track for once, rather than in the pit lane as a random fact can be used at this time to say that Lewis has only ever retired from an F1 race in the pit lane. Many see Lewis’ career in parallel with that of Jacques Villeneuve, however I think that is just coincidental and Lewis will continue to be a strong fore in F1, perhaps even into the 2020s. Heikki continued the curse of the Finns at McLaren of getting all the bad luck (Mika, Kimi) when he was in the hunt for podiums or wins. Heikki is better in qualifying as he tends to be slower in the races, but he puts this down to not having a favourable fuel strategy compared to Lewis, which compromises his racing ability. But he has to improve to be a good number 2 to Lewis and this is what cost McLaren the Constructors title last year. He needs more wins and regular podium finishes: there was not one race in 2008 where both McLaren drivers appeared on the podium.

Prediction:
McLaren: 2nd
Hamilton: 2nd
Kovalainen: 6th


Ferrari: #3 Massa; #4 Raikkonen

Ferrari look odds on to win the constructors championship with their strong driver pairing, but need to make less mistakes this year to boost team morale especially after losing wins at Hungary and Singapore last year – you calculate silly errors by the team and Massa would be champion by about 25 points, but that’s irrelevant now – you win as a team and lose as a team (but the guy operating the pit lights system manually in Singapore has to take a huge chunk of the blame).Ferrari must learn from these mistakes and remember the glory days when Schumacher didn’t have a mechanical failure for about 60 races – that’s what they need to achieve again and they’re capable of that.
Kimi is the favourite to win the drivers title: he always does well in odd-numbered years – 03, 05, 07 – 14 wins, two runners up spots and a title, compared to 04, 06 and 08 in which he amassed just 4 wins and ruined many chassis through silly mistakes. This is his year to prove that he is the driver he was at McLaren – he has never looked spectacularly quick at Ferrari, he seemed to lose that sparkle which gained him many fans, but he needs a strong year. Many have questioned his contribution to the sport, with off track capers and a desire for other sports, most notably the WRC as well as a huge pay package in these uncertain times. Kimi himself said that he became disillusioned in the middle of last year thanks to errors and gave up on the title, despite only being 5 points behind Hamilton after Budapest. But that’s Kimi’s attitude, do-or-die races such as Nurburgring 2005 and in Belgium, which was the only race in which he appeared to have genuine speed having not preferred the car’s understeery nature. But he seems much happier with the F60 and likes the cars nature, as well as the way the F60 responds to KERS and testing times suggest this to be the case. This has to be Kimi’s year and he has to stay focused and not lose interest should the car not be great as another poor year and the critics will come lashing in on the Flying Finn but if the Number 1 sticker doesn’t appear on his F2010 next January, then the Iceman may well be trashing a Ford Focus around the fjords of Norway.
Felipe on the other hand must be a broken man after theoretically being the 2008 champion for around 21 seconds; no matter how much he tries to forget it or claims that he has put it in the past, it will haunt him throughout 2009 and I don’t think that he will have a better chance to win the elusive crown. Felipe loved the understeer carried by the F2008 but he may well find himself out of favour should he not bring the scuderia a drivers title soon and may be ousted to Toyota should Ferrari favour an Alonso – Vettel partnership in a few years time.


Ferrari: 1st
Kimi: 1st
Felipe: 5th

BMW Sauber: #5 Kubica; #6 Heidfeld


BMW stopped advancing their F1.08 before Hungary last year, a decision that enraged Kubica as he felt, and rightly so, that he could have won the championship. After a promising start, they tailed off and towards the end of the season were only 4th fastest. Their F1.09 looks quite ugly and looks like a FBMW car but with Kubica at the helm he can only move the team forward. In testing, the BMW has been, well, not as quick as the Toyota or Ferrari, but the Hinwil squad are deceptive: they were abysmal in 2008 winter testing yet look where they went. I think they will have a better shot at the title this year, but may feel inclined to replace Heidfeld. Since arriving in 2006 BMW set themselves goals every year, of which they have achieved: points in 2006, podiums in 2007, a win in 2008 and their last aim was a title in 2009, something which they may well achieve. Kubica is a talented driver who never gives up: Italy last year and even in Singapore he kept pushing despite being about a minute down and having a bad headache because of the track’s bumpy nature. Heidfeld is Mr. Consistency: no retirements in 2008 and only 4 laps not completed. Heidfeld has to win in 2009, this is his tenth season, but people often forget that he has beaten team mates consisting of Raikkonen, Massa and Villeneuve. Two world champions and one runner up, again like Webber what may he have achieved had he not been tootling about in Jordans? He thinks a green helmet will help, (maybe...) but if he doesn’t win then he may be heading to a lower team or into retirement. He can deliver points but not a championship.

BMW: 3rd
Kubica: 3rd
Heidfeld: 7th.

Renault: #7 Alonso; #8 Piquet


The R28 was awful. The R28 was good. Just how did Alonso drag that car from midfield, Nakajima rammed sick bucket to a back-to-back race winner? He had 18 points after Valencia then got 43 points between Spa and Sao Paolo. With another new livery and a race suit that appears to have been used by the gay pride parade, the R29 is Renault’s last hope to be blunt. Flavio has said that he will leave soon and with ING pulling the plug on their involvement in F1 at the end of the year and giving lots of dosh to Nando, they aren’t exactly raking in the money. If the car is bad, then Fernando will not feel inclined to stay at the French squad. If Piquet is poor then they will not exactly feel sorry to drop him, add that to poor car sales throughout Europe and a declining Euro and more economic woes, then we could be saying au revoir to the Renault team after Abu Dhabi.
Alonso is by far the best all round driver in Formula One. At this point the R29 does not look fast but does that matter to a driver of Alonso’s calibre. Piquet may improve, but he is not the same driver he was in GP2 and Flavio isn’t exactly the sympathetic boss. Grosjean may be lurking in the winds should the Brazilian fail to improve. He wasn’t good in 2008 and got one fortuitous podium, after ending up walking back to the pits in many races (Spa, Singapore, Brazil), but towards the end of the season he did improve and maybe that’s what Renault saw, as well as a Number 2 that won’t trouble Fernando. But having wrecked many R28’s, in Brazil and Singapore, in the current financial crisis they may be in a situation like Prost in 2001 where they cannot ruin the chassis due to insufficient funds. That is the least likely option, but should the R29 falter, the French bosses may pull the plug on the former champions.

Renault: 4th
Alonso: 4rd
Piquet: 12th

Toyota: #9 Trulli; #10 Glock


Toyota announced their launch through an extravagant movie-style, well, movie. Shame Toyota’s car sales aren’t great and continued threats from the big bosses in Japan means that this year really is a win-or-bust one for Toyota, but they have their best driver pairing so far, Glock has lots of confidence and Trulli always pushes, but he may make way for Kobayashi in the not too distant future. With Renault, Toyota, Heidfeld and Williams (to be discussed later) seeking a good year, this is the most uncertain year in F1’s history and a good year is pivotal to its future as a sport. The TF109 looks good and quick: Glock has been mixing it with the BMWs and Ferraris in Bahrain, but whether than translates into podiums and wins, when F1 is at its most competitive, is another story. Jarno still has just one win to his name but races like Magny Cours and Singapore make him a strong force. However, I think despite his experience he will struggle this year. Yes he got Toyota onto the front row in Brazil, but that led to a poor race, something which cannot happen in these competitive days. He is a good qualifier but not a strong racer, although his defence of 3rd place in France against Kovy last year was very good. Glock is getting better and pressure to deliver, as seen in the latter half of 2004 when he was under pressure from Renault and scored no points from Magny Cours onwards, may lead to Jarno making crucial mistakes and slip slowly down the order. After his uber-shunt at Hockenheim last July, Timo has been very strong and wasn’t killed by Brazilian/Ferrari supporters after deciding the championship, sort-of. I see him as a consistent point’s scorer but Toyota always have a weak section at some point in the season, so he may score about the same as 2008.

Toyota: 6th
Trulli: 13th
Glock: 10th

Toro Rosso: #11 Buemi; #12 Bourdais


2006: 0pts, 2007: 8 pts, 2008: 42 pts. If they improve like that they’ll be champions this year. But they won’t. If they’re lucky they’ll get 15 points. Having lost Berger, they will lose an intelligent team member and supportive boss. Buemi, having driven the medical car at Fuji, and spun it, is not the next Vettel. He is under huge pressure from journalists, Switzerland and the team to perform like Vettel did, but he is a rookie who, although had a stunning GP2 race at Magny Cours last year, is not the greatest talent to emerge from the land of GP2. Pantano, di Grassi, Senna, Grosjean, Maldonado all finished above him, but that’s not to say he hasn’t got talent. He’s barely out of his teens and he should score points but this year will be a learning curve for him and he may well be outdone by team mate Bourdais. Now we need new nicknames for them as they are both ‘Le Seb’ rather than ‘Der Seb’ and ‘Le Seb’, any suggestions? We can assess Bourdais. Gutted at dropping from 3rd to 7th at Spa, he had his fair share of bad luck last year. He is not afraid to speak his mind, something which is not approved of in F1, but like Webber he is a wasted talent. He could have got a Renault drive but not everyone is so fortunate. Expect more from him this year, if not, then he could be heading to the IRL in 2010.

Toro Rosso: 8th
Buemi: 16th
Bourdais: 14th

Red Bull: #14 Webber; #15 Vettel


Since dropping their party attitude and focusing on racing, Red Bull has improved, but not as much as others around them. Vettel winning the Italian Grand Prix for B-team Toro Rosso must have hurt, but now they have a serious shot at the big time. The RB5 looks fast and with Vettel and Webber they have a strong driver pairing. But one driver may ruin another: If Vettel is quick he will blot Webber’s copybook of destroying all of his teammates, but if it’s the other way around then Webber is truly a wasted talent. He is the most unlucky driver: who else could be injured whilst trying to raise money for charity, having not been injured when racing at 200mph, then does it on a push bike. He will feel pain and that will prevent him reaching his full potential this year, but I reckon Red Bull will have their usual mid-season dip and for Vettel to do as well as last year is a big ask. I think Vettel will still be riding high from last year and his excellent form and being promoted will boost his confidence, but I doubt he will do as well as last year in terms of points, but he may well finish in the same position. I hope that Webber will get a win that he so deserves, but I doubt he will, as he could be a champion by now: He was offered a Renault contract by Flav in 2005, which he declined in favour of Williams, a decision that Briatore has never let Webber forget.

Red Bull: 5th
Webber: 11th
Vettel: 8th

Williams: #16 Rosberg; #17 Nakajima


Williams are not in a great state financially, but Frank jokes that they have ‘beaten the bailiffs before and can do it again’. Williams’ problem, apart from a crashaholic Nakajima, is the loss of sponsors Lenovo and the fact that main sponsors RBS are not coping well in the current financial crisis and like Honda and ING, pulling the plug on their association with Formula One is one of the first steps to dig themselves out of a hole. Rosberg shined on occasions last year, scored podiums in Oz and in the dark as well as being supremely quick there, the problem was on fast, normal circuits the car was not good... which is about 15 out of the 17 tracks. Damn. He needs to be quick this year: this is the former GP2 champion’s fourth season and it again like others mentioned is a make or break year. Nakajima is only there because in order for Williams to receive Toyota engines, they want a Japanese driver in the team in return. He had a crash affair with the retired DC and wasn’t exactly fast, but did beat Rosberg a couple of times. Should Toyota pull out of F1, Williams will also be in a mess but Nakajima could wave goodbye to a seat should he struggle again. If looks could kill, then there would be no-one left in the Jerez paddock after the unveiling of the FW-31 but I fear that it will be another year of a few good weekends but the majority of the races spent wallowing in the doldrums for Frank Williams’ team as the other teams, BMW, Ferrari, McLaren, occupying the top 6 will mean scrapping for the odd point when others falter.

Williams: 7th
Rosberg: 9th
Nakajima: 15th
.

Force India: #20 Sutil; #21 Fisichella

FIF1 will do a lot better than last year. With their partnership with McLaren-Mercedes announced last year, they will move up the grid, but they will not be consistent points scorer, they just won’t be tootling around the back like they were in 2008. It is impossible to assess their chances with the VJM02 yet, as it hasn’t been unveiled, but Fisi is their weakness. He should have retired at the end of 2007 but didn’t. He was outclassed by Sutil and there is nothing in F1 for Fisi now as he has no hope of a win, let alone a championship. If FIF1 ride their luck then they should get some points, (their hope is a podium at the 2011 Indian Grand Prix). For them to be Force India they need an Indian driver and Bernie is pushing Mallya to put Karun Chandhok in a FIF1 seat. They say they need Fisi for the experience but I reckon this will be his last year and he will be pushed out to make way for the upcoming Indian. This is not to say that Sutil is safe. This will be his third season in F1, having just one point to his name. He is a good driver, he was team mate to Hamilton in 2005 F3 Euroseries, and beat him sometimes, although Hamilton scored twice as many points and won 75% of the races. Still, Sutil is good. Monaco proved that and he was looking racy at Fuji until a tyre blew and put him out. He will score more points this year and I think he’ll remain at Force India for the moment. But for his future to improve he needs to climb into a better team but with so many upcoming drivers such as Hulkenberg, Senna, di Grassi, that will be difficult as Sutil does not have age on his side (yeah, I know he’s only in his mid-late 20s, but others like Buemi are barely 20, thats a 6-7 year advantage) as well as not having anything particularly special that he can bring to other teams that are looking for wins.

Force India: 9th
Sutil: 17th
Fisichella: 18th


Team X: #18 Button; #19 TBA (Senna or Barrichello)

If Honda do find a buyer before Sunday (when it is rumoured that the team will disband), then it will be another year at the back for Jenson Button, whom let’s be honest, was outclassed by Barrichello last year. There is no way that the team can be competitive in Melbourne as you need 6 weeks to match the car for the engine and there is not that much time before March 27th, should the deal with Mercedes be announced. It is doubtful that Barrichello will get the drive as he has his record of most starts and has nothing else to achieve or prove in the sport. In a way, it would be good for Bruno Senna as he can have a learning curve year at the back, where not many will take notice but he can learn a lot from the car, learn the tracks and gain information from team mate Button without being under a lot of pressure. Should the team race then they will be at the back, a blow for Button who thought about 2009 all through a poor 2008 as the team had stopped work on the RA108 and were confident that the RA109 would be a race winner. Alas, how things change...

"Team Brawn": 10th
Button: 19th
Barrichello: 20th
Last edited by phil1993 on 02 Mar 2009, 19:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by swca92 » 22 Feb 2009, 19:28

Great preview,just as good as anything F1 Racing or Autosport will publish,though I strongly disagree with your predicted results for 2009.I think the McLaren/Ferrari monopoly will be broken with Kubica winning the championship,and Heidfeld,Webber and Glock notching up first wins(I see 7 different winners in 2009).Also expect Force India to get 20 points,with Sutil maybe getting a surprise podium in a wet race.

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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by phil1993 » 22 Feb 2009, 19:40

I should write for F1 Racing then :lol: at least they'd pay me :n I could have waffled on for ages going more in depth but I thought that would bore everyone to death. But I don't have the fancy graphics and data, sorry. :roll::
The predictions are only rough: its impossible to predict with these new rules at this stage in the season: who knows who will win the title let alone an individual race. Sutil could have won Monaco last year; Heidfeld was forced to play the team game in Canada when he could have won. I think you're right: the three drivers you mentioned are most likely to get their breakthrough win ths year: especially if the RB5 is as good as everyone thinks it is.

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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by AzShadow » 22 Feb 2009, 21:26

Seems like a thorough preview. :thumbsup: You might want to use more paragraphs to make it easier to read, though.

I personally think that the testing has been so short yet that it's hard to make any conclusions. After the last tests we should see some sort of order, although some teams tend to surprise in Melbourne, and those tests are really important as it's hard to improve the car very much during the season now.
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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by swca92 » 22 Feb 2009, 22:39

Well testing so far has been fairly inconclusive as cars are at different stages in developing the 2009 cars,I don't think we'll know how competitve every team is till the Spanish GP,when everyone should have their 2009 cars and KERS ready.Its gonna be a year of surprises,and I'll be disappointed if the hierachy of last year doesn't change in 2009.

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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by phil1993 » 23 Feb 2009, 16:43

AzShadow wrote:Seems like a thorough preview. :thumbsup: You might want to use more paragraphs to make it easier to read, though..
I wrote it in Word but it merged into bigger chunks when I copied it to here

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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by coup » 23 Feb 2009, 17:39

great preview, I particularly like your predictions for the championships :)
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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by ric.rios » 25 Feb 2009, 18:56

*At this time it is not known who would drive the 2nd car but it is likely to be Bruno Senna due to his links with Brazilian Oil giants Petrobas
Petrobras has discarded any linking with Senna.
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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by mountford » 01 Mar 2009, 17:59

Nice preview :thumbsup:
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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by megasyxx » 02 Mar 2009, 18:52

bold prediction for kimi 1st and hamilton 2nd....i think of the same, only the other way around . :)
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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by ferrarifanman » 02 Mar 2009, 19:16

Really nice. Nice seeing a well written preview.

However... I don't agree with Felipe finishing 5th this year. I reckon it will be a three-four-five way fight with BMWs both Ferraris and Lewis.

Thanks!
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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by phil1993 » 02 Mar 2009, 19:34

Thats the thing - if you have a 5 way tie, someone must finish P5. So there's the justification of my prediction :)

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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by swca92 » 02 Mar 2009, 21:46

Could Vettel win the championship? Red Bull have been mighty quick,and Newey may have did what he did in 98 and designed a fantastic car for new regulations.I may be being presumptuous,but is it possible?

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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by megasyxx » 02 Mar 2009, 23:44

possible....lets wait and see :)
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Re: 2009 Season Preview by phil1993

Post by Haukinen » 03 Mar 2009, 14:06

Vettel is going to be a BIG NAME this year.

BTW: Yo, what happened to 2009 Australian GP topic?
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