F1 Betting in the Era of Hamilton

By on Friday, June 8, 2018

No F1 season is complete without at least one surprise win. This season has been no exception, with Daniel Ricciardo’s wins at the Grand Prix of China and Monaco proving that an underdog is sometimes worth backing. Yet, with Hamilton still fancied to sweep home for a fifth world title, just how are the most popular F1 markets still relevant today?

The fact that current odds go against a champion other than Hamilton speaks volumes. Like Ricciardo, Hamilton has only won two races prior to the Canadian Grand Prix, but a win for him there would lengthen the odds of ‘any other driver’ winning the title to approximately +300, from the current market average of around +200.

While Hamilton would further augment his lead in that event, the gap would not yet be unassailable. With Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo holding their own – despite being hindered by inferior machinery – anything is possible. Provided that a champion other than Hamilton is still a realistic prospect by the end of July, a good alternative would be to wait until the summer break, and the possibility of Ferrari or Red Bull improving their setup enough to make a real assault on Hamilton.

The 2018 F1 table as it stood after six races.

In holding out until Hamilton has a bigger lead, bettors could benefit from expected odds of 10/1 for a field (without Hamilton) bet after the summer break.  Many people who enjoy betting offers, such as the array of $30 free bets available online, will use them at such a flashpoint every season. Ultimately, some predictable race results can be expected once the lesser constructors have worked on improving the aerodynamics of their vehicles – and, most certainly, if Hamilton wraps up the title with several races to spare.

Naturally, Lewis Hamilton is always going to be odds-on to take pole and to win. Thus, some ingenuity and creativity will be required to ensure that nobody loses out needlessly on a driver with long odds but no chance of victory. In combining even just two foreseeable stipulations as part of a bespoke bet (if offered by the bookmaker), there are still modest profits to be had, which can, in turn, be used on more speculative bets.

With approximate odds used here and a $10 stake assumed, there are several unique (and realistic) combinations which would have yielded a payout this season:

  • Australian GP: Vettel to win (+300) and Raikkonen to finish on the podium (+400) – $200
  • Bahrain GP: Vettel to win (+300) and Ricciardo NOT to finish on the podium (-200) – $50
  • Chinese GP: Ricciardo to win (+600) and both Renaults (Sainz & Hulkenberg) to get points (+300) – $270

Key elements such as form, technical changes and a driver’s previous record on a particular circuit must all be taken into account when the opportunity to place a bespoke accumulator arises. There may also be the opportunity to do this in-play but, such is the changeable, spontaneous nature of F1, only the one with the ‘place bet’ button in their hands could make the call.

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